Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds

February 11, 2016 Now that he's won New Hampshire by a record margin, more and more people are wondering what Bernie's odds are of winning the nomination. If you are one of those people, I did some work on the subject about a month ago. According to the betting market, the winner of the South Carolina debate on Tuesday night was former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who saw his chances to win the Democratic Primary rise from 20.5% to 24.2%. Senator Bernie Sanders remains the odds-on favorite after taking on critics from all sides during the debate. With scandal and drama surrounding the DNC’s treatment of Bernie Sanders and an FBI investigation into party nominee Hillary Clinton, things were anything but standard in that election. The political whirlwind that ensued did result in a few positive consequences, though, including providing a fertile environment for political betting in 2020.

If you’ve been following my posts on 2020 Presidential election odds, you know I never believed Sen. Joe Biden was going to win the Democratic party nomination.

Oddsmakers disagreed early on, listing Biden as the front-runner. That changed last month as Sen. Bernie Sanders became the betting favorite. At the time, it didn’t totally make sense.

But as is usually the case, the oddsmakers got it right.

Sanders narrowly lost in Iowa. He has won the New Hampshire primary, besting Pete Buttigieg in the popular vote (the delegates between the two were evenly split nine apiece). Sen. Amy Klobuchar finished third, capturing six delegates.

Sanders’ New Hampshire win boosts his election odds

In modern elections, candidates need to win either Iowa or New Hampshire to win their party nomination. And no candidate has ever finished fourth in NH and won the nomination. All of that adds up to bad news for Biden, who won neither and finished fifth in New Hampshire.

When the Sanders surge began three weeks ago, Bern’s odds at European sportsbooks pulled just ahead of Biden. Sanders was priced at +500 to win the presidency to Biden’s +550.

That is no longer the case.

After Sanders’ New Hampshire victory, he’s now +400 to win the presidential election — the best among Democrats. Biden has dropped all the way to the +2000/+2500 range.

Can Biden make a comeback?

If you watched Tuesday night’s primary coverage, there’s no gray area as to what Biden’s strategy is moving forward.

• South Carolina (primary on Feb. 29th) is his so-called “firewall.”
• However, Nevada (caucus on Feb. 22) could be his real last stand.
• Biden immediately spun a narrative calling out that 99% of African-Americans had not yet voted.
• As well as noting that 98% of Latinos had not yet voted.
• And Biden made it clear that any candidate who is going to win the Democratic nomination needs those votes.

While he is right, is it too late for him? Has he lost all of his early momentum? Or as Amy Klobuchar’s campaign is now calling it, “Klomentum”?

Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds Democratic

History, and oddsmakers, suggest it’s all but done for Biden.

Yes, Bloomberg is viewed as the second betting favorite now…

Part of Biden’s rebound problem is that Michael Bloomberg officially enters the race (and debate stage) in Nevada.

Among Dems, Bloomberg is the second betting favorite now, priced around +500 to win the presidency. That bests Buttigieg’s +1600 and has him nearly even with Sanders.

Bloomberg has also taken the second most bets among Democrats on sites like PredictIt.org.

Bernie Sanders Odds Winning Nomination

However, he’s currently running fifth in polls in the Silver State. As Klobuchar has shown, a good debate performance can certainly provide a meaningful bump. Bloomberg’s campaign bullied their way onto that debate stage for a reason. He is also spending hundreds of millions in an ad blitz to jump-start his campaign.

Bloomberg’s late entrance though may cause another potential issue for the Democrats: splitting delegates and causing a contested convention.

A contested convention could actually help Biden

As of now, it’s Buttigieg who still leads the delegate count over Sanders. If Biden does well enough in Nevada to hang on through South Carolina, he could very well keep fighting until the convention, counting on his institutional appeal putting him over the top. Biden would then actually be helped by Bloomberg winning a few states and delegates along the way. No Democrat would have a majority heading into the convention. And no Democrat would benefit from that more than Biden.

That kind of chaos could throw betting markets into disarray. It would almost certainly harm Sanders the most given his less-than-centrist appeal.

Who is out of the race?

While New Hampshire did not necessarily provide any clarity for who will ultimately win the nomination, it did winnow the field more.

The results have already caused Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet (he ran?) to drop out. Expect Yang supporters to gravitate towards Bloomberg and Buttigieg. Bennet’s support was so minimal that his exit will have no impact.

November 4 Update: With most of the vote counted, it looks like Joe Biden will win a closely contested election and flip the White House to the Democratic Party. However, with several states still certifying their ballots and slowly releasing their counts, you can still wager on those state outcomes. This is, in effect, political live betting, and you can participate by signing up now at any election betting site listed here.

In 2016, the Democrats had just as tumultuous a Presidential race as the Republicans did. With scandal and drama surrounding the DNC’s treatment of Bernie Sanders and an FBI investigation into party nominee Hillary Clinton, things were anything but standard in that election. The political whirlwind that ensued did result in a few positive consequences, though, including providing a fertile environment for political betting in 2020.

Among the various political betting lines and odds for the 2020 US presidential election, there are party-related wagering options that include a variety of Democrat betting odds. For those individuals interested in accessing betting action that is party specific in nature, we have created this informational guide. It is designed to serve as a resource for understanding how the political betting industry has integrated lines for legally placing bets specifically for or against the Democratic Party using Vegas election odds models.

🦠 Coronavirus Update: Due to the Coronavirus, Democratic candidates have seen their odds fluctuate over the last weeks. Not only are candidate odds changing with the pandemic, but Vegas election odds have also been affected by the Coronavirus.

Democratic Presidential Candidates for 2020

The field of Democrats running for the 2020 Presidency currently has eight (8) candidates participating. Each candidate has unique running policies and positions they represent. While the field may be packed, there are plenty of odds and betting lines on the Presidential candidates.

Where Can I Legally Place Bets On The Vegas Democrat Odds?

Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds 2020

All of the sportsbooks that you see listed in this guide offer US-friendly political betting lines. They have all been vetted by our team of analysts through an intense review process where we have ensured that they are all operating legally within the industry and are safe to use for US bettors.

Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds Against

Each destination either holds their own licensing credentials or are owned and operated by a parent company that possess licensing in multiple jurisdictions. These political sports betting sites that accept USA customers are secure and high-quality destinations that offer a healthy variety of political wagering opportunities.

Most Reputable US Online Sportsbooks To Bet On The 2020 Presidential Election

2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee – Joe Biden

As of this writing, its far too early to determine the Democratic Presidential Nominee. Right now, the list of Democratic candidates who have entered the race has been narrowed down from nearly 30 to just eight, and another culling is coming soon. All presidential betting odds are currently in the 'futures' section of your sportsbook's betting lines, with some options available in the 'prop bets' section.

While it's way too early to be sure who's getting the DNC nod, some bettors are taking a stab at it anyhow because getting their wagers in ASAP will reap significant payouts should they end up predicting the candidate that wins the 2020 Democratic nomination and Presidential Election.

2024 Democratic Nomination Odds

• Joe Biden +250
• Kamala Harris +250
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1200
• Elizabeth Warren +1200
• Stacey Abrams +1200
• Michelle Obama +1400
• Andrew Cuomo +1600
• Andrew Yang +1600
• Bernie Sanders +1600
• Pete Buttigieg +1600
• Michael Bennet +2000
• Michael Bloomberg +2000
• Amy Klobuchar +2500
• Cory Booker +2500
• Gretchen Whitmer +2500

* More odds available at Bovada

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Will Democrats Take The House in 2022?

The ability and likelihood of Democrats taking over the House of Representatives in the 2022 Midterms (or keeping it, should they maintain their current majority) depends on who is named President in the 2020 Election, the bills and laws introduced before the next Midterms, and so on. At this moment in time, it is far too early in the political cycle to determine whether the Democrats will take over the House in the upcoming Midterm elections.

Will Democrats Take The Senate 2022?

The likelihood of the Dems taking the Senate in 2022 depends on the makeup of the Senate itself before the elections, the number of seats available, who is President at the time, and which laws are being introduced before the Midterms. While it is far too early to assume the outcome, odds for the Senate Races will be posted as we near the next Midterms, which will certainly spark some debate at that time. If the Democrats take the Senate over from Republican control in November 2020, they will have a historically better chance of keeping it then wresting back control, especially since many analysts are projecting the GOP to increase their Senate numbers in 2020.

Other Types of Democrat Odds To Bet On

Bernie Sanders Nominee Odds

Quite a few of the political betting odds we see online are party specific in nature. For example, you can vote on which party will win the White House, which party will receive the popular vote, which party will receive the electoral vote majority, Vice President odds, and which party will have the most voter turnout. Each political betting site offers different Vegas election odds and betting lines, so you can compare the lines at our recommended betting sites to determine which destination covers the odds that interest you more.

Bernie Sanders Nomination Odds

You can bet on any party on any line. Do not confuse your bets with your vote. You are not obligated to place bets to favor the same candidates you are voting for.

Democratic Congressional Candidates For 2020

Other Pages Of Interest

• Primary and Caucus Betting - Find odds for the 2020 Caucuses and Primaries for each state as they become available.
• State Electoral Vote Odds - Find current odds for each candidate to win the electoral college vote in a specific state.
• Republican Betting Odds - Find the latest betting odds for the Republicans to win in the 2020 election.
• Third-Party Politics - An in-depth look at other political parties in the USA and what candidates each could produce.
• Independents - A closer look at possible Independent candidates.
• Political Prop Bets - See the latest political prop bets leading up to the 2020 Presidential election.
• Presidential Debates - Learn more about betting lines associated with the 2020 Presidential debates.