Iowa Democratic Odds

Apr 07, 2020 Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted. FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. While there might have been no clear winner in this week’s Iowa caucus, the Hawkeye State shook up the Democratic presidential race. A top analyst of booking trends and betting lines told Florida Daily that the odds have changed in the wake of the Iowa caucuses disaster and expects more big changes between now and November.

Bernie Sanders

Nomination: $2.54
President: $5.80

Iowa Democratic Odds 2020

Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the nomination.

Why, therefore, is he available to back above $2.50? A view that Democrat voters will eventually coalesce around a more moderate alternative. Sanders is nowhere near 50% nationally, or even it seems in New Hampshire. Even with a fast start, he may not win a majority of delegates, thus prompting speculation of a contested, or brokered, Democrat Convention.

The market will likely resist Sanders all year to some extent, because hype about an establishment stitch-up against him will proliferate. In many respects, this Democrat race is beginning to mirror the 2016 Republican race, when outsider Trump fought mulitple establishment candidates. We know how that ended. Bernie’s odds for both markets are pretty generous and likely to shorten in the weeks ahead.

Just as I did with the 2024 Republican Odds (which you can findhere), I am going to tackle the 2024 Democrat Odds that were recently released and give me thoughts on some of the long shots, the middle of the pack and the favorites.

Iowa Democratic Odds Presidential

Joe Biden would be 81-years-old in 2024, would he run again? I don’t think so, and would Kamala would be in line to be his successor, but will that mean she will become the Democratic nominee? I am not sold quite yet.

Long Shot

Michael Bloomberg (+2000) made some noise early on as he threw over $500 million at the election to try to become the Democratic Nominee. We also saw him throw hundreds of millions more in support of the Democrats/Biden to help push President Trump out of office. Bloomberg would be 82-years-old come 2024, I don’t think he is a player, but I believe he can impact who he buys into this election.

Pete Buttigieg (+1500) intrigues me at this price. Nobody expected him to run as well as he did, and he won the Iowa Presidential Caucuses this year, and he is a younger face that could be the face of Democrats for years to come. Pete aligns with a lot of what the newer generation is seeking in a Democratic Candidate. I do think he would be a good VP if he is unable to snag the Presidential Nominee.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are both +1200 but they will be 84 and 75 respectively around the time primaries start to kick in. I am not sure either of which will run but again like Bloomberg, they can push a candidate with their backing to the next level.

Wild Card

Iowa Democratic Odds By Mike Lindell

Andrew Yang +800, while the business leader made a splash upon the trails in 2020, he does lack the political aspect of the other fellow candidates within not holding any office yet. I expect him to give this another go, and Yang has some pull within him because of the simple fact that he has helped the party (while criticizing) within this election with Joe Biden and moving down to Georgia to help with the run-offs. I like Yang a lot, but I am not sure he will ever get the backing from the Democratic party to get the bid.

Iowa Democratic Odds 2019

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+600) is an interesting name, and as you see in her odds. She is a very vocal leader in this new wave and next-generation, and she is afraid of any challenges placed in front of her. I would be intrigued to see if she would be willing to run in 2024 and challenge Kamala, but if she gets the right momentum and as my friend Shane pointed out, she could be that new with Bernie out of the fold leader, especially if she gets his backing.

Front Runner

Kamala Harris has the best odds at +300 among the entire listing and not much of a surprise with Biden saying he feels more like a transition candidate and with her now being Vice-President Elect. She is set to be the first Woman-POC to hold as high as office as she is, which would set the tone for her campaign. Harris would have four years of being inside the White House under her belt, and how Biden and her handle the Pandemic, Economy, and Social Injustice over the next four years will be telling within whether or not she is going to be that ahead of the pact.

I have been on record stating I have issues with Kamala, and I don’t think she is a viable candidate for the seat as she wouldn’t be my choice, but it’s not up to me. If she has a strong four years with Biden in office, do the Democrats throw their weight behind her and try to win the election? But my biggest question is, ‘Can she win?’ and I am not sure she can.

Iowa Democratic Odds 2020

Right now, she is in the driver seat to represent the Democrats in the 2024 election, who do you think is? Who would you like to see in the slot in 2024?